Foresight and advisory intelligence · MJ

What is becoming true.
What to advise.

Signals are promoted only when they change a judgment, strengthen a convergence, or create a time-sensitive advisory move.

Most recent successful retrieval (partial coverage): 26 Sep, 13:19 Beirut
Packet generated 26 Sep, 13:19 Beirut
Page built 26 September 2026, 13:19 Beirut

1do now

6open decisions

12signals in view

12precursors

72sources tracked

4stale · 6 errors

Today

Recent source-dated developments; a signal alone does not change advice

PUBLISHED25 Sep, 23:50

What did AI researchers think at the end of 2024?

community post; claims unverified

We recently (finally!) got the results of the 2024 survey out. The paper is here , but it’s pretty long, so I’ll tell you the most interesting bits (according to me). But first, quick background : this was the fourth run of the same survey since 2016. We wrote to everyone we could who published in six top-tier AI…

Why you may careCould matter to agent workflows if the reported task success, human handoff, cost, and operating limits hold up.

Next checkCheck the measured outcome, comparison, limits, and whether it applies to a decision you own. Until then, treat it as a lead.

PUBLISHED25 Sep, 21:33

Ollaya – Ollama for open-source, Jev-style decision models

community link/discussion; claims unverified

Comments

Why you may careA reported deployment case may be relevant; its results may not transfer to your workflow or operating conditions.

Next checkCheck the measured outcome, comparison, limits, and whether it applies to a decision you own. Until then, treat it as a lead.

Labs, models & tooling31/34 live

91%

Research13/13 live

100%

Expert intelligence6/6 live

100%

Policy, capital & adoption14/17 live

82%

Talent2/2 live

100%

Grok / X precursor scoutLatest attempt 24 Sep, 10:53 Beirut

9 promoted signals

16/16 accounts · 10/10 searches checked (reported by scout).

Collection gaps requiring attention

llama.cpp releases: hard 35-second source timeout
Transformers releases: hard 35-second source timeout
ClinicalTrials.gov AI studies: Client error '403 Forbidden' for url 'https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies?query.term=artificial%20intelligence%20OR%20machine%20learning&pageSize=100&format=json' For more information check: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/403
Congress — frontier technology bills and actions: credential required: CONGRESS_API_KEY
Regulations.gov — AI documents and comment deadlines: credential required: REGULATIONS_API_KEY
SAM.gov — AI procurement notices: credential required: SAM_API_KEY

Source cadence and retrieval status

Source	Cadence	Last success	Next due	Current state
OpenAI official news	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Anthropic official news	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Google DeepMind official blog	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Google Research blog	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Hugging Face blog	120 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 15:19	unchanged
NVIDIA technical blog	120 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 15:19	unchanged
arXiv AI preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 08:59	26 Sep, 14:59	empty
arXiv robotics preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 08:59	26 Sep, 14:59	empty
arXiv machine learning preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 08:59	26 Sep, 14:59	ok
vLLM releases	60 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 14:19	unchanged
llama.cpp releases	60 min	26 Sep, 11:18	26 Sep, 13:19	error
Transformers releases	60 min	26 Sep, 11:18	26 Sep, 13:19	error
SGLang releases	60 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 14:19	unchanged
Qwen model repositories	60 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 14:19	ok
deepseek-ai model repositories	60 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 14:19	ok
meta-llama model repositories	60 min	26 Sep, 12:19	26 Sep, 13:19	ok
Epoch AI — Gradient Updates	120 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 15:19	ok
METR research	120 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 15:19	unchanged
The Innermost Loop	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	unchanged
Jack Clark — Import AI	180 min	26 Sep, 12:19	26 Sep, 15:19	ok
arXiv computational linguistics preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	empty
arXiv computer vision preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
arXiv quantitative biology preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	empty
Hugging Face papers	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Hugging Face recent model repositories	60 min	26 Sep, 12:19	26 Sep, 13:19	ok
Hugging Face recent dataset repositories	120 min	26 Sep, 13:19	26 Sep, 15:19	ok
GitHub trending repositories	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
GitHub trending Python repositories	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
GitHub trending Jupyter repositories	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
OpenRouter newest model listings	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
SWE-bench leaderboard	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	unchanged
Product Hunt AI launches	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
SEC latest EDGAR filings	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
ARPA-E funding opportunities	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
ARPA-H funding opportunities	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
DARPA opportunities	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
FDA press announcements	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
NIST AI publications	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
LessWrong latest posts	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Hacker News newest	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Alignment Forum latest posts	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Anthropic careers	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Google DeepMind careers	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
GitHub topic artificial intelligence	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
GitHub topic agents	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
GitHub topic robotics	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Hugging Face trending Spaces	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
OpenRouter monthly rankings	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Artificial Analysis models	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
FDA AI/ML-enabled medical devices	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	unchanged
NIST AI Resource Center	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
EU AI Office	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Defense Innovation Unit open solicitations	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	unchanged
DOE EERE funding opportunities	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
AI Engineer events	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Foresight Institute events	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	unchanged
SynBioBeta	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	unchanged
NeurIPS program site	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
ICML program site	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
ICLR program site	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
bioRxiv AI-relevant biology preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
medRxiv computational and clinical preprints	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
ClinicalTrials.gov AI studies	360 min	Unknown	27 Sep, 01:00	error · stale
GitHub trending developers	360 min	26 Sep, 09:00	26 Sep, 15:00	ok
Federal Register — artificial intelligence	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Federal Register — compute, data centers and energy	30 min	26 Sep, 12:57	26 Sep, 13:27	ok
Federal Register — biotechnology and clinical AI	60 min	26 Sep, 12:19	26 Sep, 13:19	ok
Congress — frontier technology bills and actions	60 min	Unknown	27 Sep, 01:00	error · stale
Regulations.gov — AI documents and comment deadlines	60 min	Unknown	27 Sep, 01:00	error · stale
SAM.gov — AI procurement notices	360 min	Unknown	27 Sep, 01:00	error · stale

Early observations

Unverified candidates for review. Ranking is a heuristic, not confidence or probability.

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

M-plicits: Neural Implicit Surfaces via Nested Multiscale Residuals

arXiv:2609.28684v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Encoding input coordinates with sinusoidal functions into multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) has proven effective for implicit neural representations (INRs) of surfaces defined as zero-level sets. However, existing methods often struggle to balance training efficiency, rendering…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Small yet Assistive: Spatially-Aware Post-Training for Low Vision

arXiv:2609.28757v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: An estimated 1 billion people worldwide live with vision impairment, yet current vision-language models (VLMs) produce descriptions too vague for safe navigation by blind and low-vision (BLV) users. Large VLMs can generate high-quality audio-description-compliant narrations but…

capabilitydeploymentpolicy

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

MoVISA: Multi-Token Reasoning for Video Object Segmentation

arXiv:2609.28956v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent advances in video object segmentation with Multimodal Large Language Model (MLLM) reasoning have demonstrated the effectiveness of using a single textual token, such as SEG, to predict segmentation masks across images and videos. However, we observe that this…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Exploiting answer-invariant redundancies in satellite imagery for efficient VLM inference on edge

arXiv:2609.29029v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Onboard vision-language models could enable satellites to answer queries directly, but exhaustive tiled inference over high-resolution imagery is slow and energy-intensive. We identify answer-invariant token redundancy (AITR): image tiles and vision tokens that can be removed…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

TOLA: Text-aware One-Step Latent Adaptation for Diffusion-based Text Image Super-Resolution

arXiv:2609.29240v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Text image super-resolution (TSR) aims to recover visually faithful and readable text under unknown degradations. Existing diffusion-based methods typically rely on multi-step prediction of either the high-resolution image or its text prior, resulting in prohibitive…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

A Study of the Limits of Collaborative DCT-Based Image Denoising via Interpretable Neural Networks

arXiv:2609.29334v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Image denoising remains a fundamental problem in image restoration, with applications in photography, biomedical, and scientific imaging. Modern deep neural networks achieve strong performance by learning powerful image priors, but often rely on large black-box models with…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

SEE Challenge 2026: Event-Guided Brightness Adjustment Across a Broad Illumination Range

arXiv:2609.29347v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Event cameras provide a high dynamic range and preserve brightness-change cues in lighting conditions where conventional RGB frames may be noisy or saturated. To benchmark event-guided restoration across a broad illumination range, we organized the SEE Challenge 2026 with the…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Industrial Anomaly Detection via Defect-Grounded Reasoning in Visual Latent Space

arXiv:2609.29457v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Industrial anomaly detection (IAD) is evolving beyond conventional detection and localization toward multimodal inspection systems that can describe, explain, and reason about fine-grained defects. Although recent multimodal large language model (MLLM)-based methods improve…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Long-Tail Adaptive Flow Matching with Explicit Conditional Consistency Guidance for Precise Multimodal Face Synthesis

arXiv:2609.29581v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Although diffusion-based methods have substantially improved the controllability of multimodal face synthesis, their semantic alignment remains suboptimal because most existing approaches rely on implicit latent-space objectives to model the relationship between denoising…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Albireo: Adaptive, Energy-Efficient Inference Framework for Video Object Detection on the Edge

arXiv:2609.29648v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Video object detection on edge devices runs computationally expensive detectors over long frame streams, causing high energy consumption and sustained GPU utilization. Although consecutive frames are highly redundant, naive frame skipping is content-blind: it skips during…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

GHOST-Q: Towards Studying Grounding Hallucinations Overlooked Under Same-score TradeOffs in Quantized VLMS

arXiv:2609.29999v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-training quantization of vision--language models (VLMs) is typically assessed through aggregate task accuracy and memory savings, but preserving a headline score does not guarantee preservation of visual grounding behavior. We present GHOST-Q, a cross-precision controlled…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Stable and Faithful Explanations for Knowledge Tracing

arXiv:2609.28502v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Knowledge tracing (KT) models predict student performance opaquely, limiting pedagogical action. This study contributes a validation protocol testing predictive competitiveness (RQ1), explanation stability (RQ2) and retraining-based faithfulness (RQ3) together. Thirteen…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

Reviewed developments

Proposed decisions, not executed actions. Breakthrough verification is not yet established.

DECISION PROPOSED · 17 Sep, 08:20

Upgrade llama.cpp before the next Apple Silicon MoE evaluation.

Decision rationale; primary evidence not yet reviewed.

Recorded rationaleThe release fixes a Metal path that can turn large activations into NaNs. Any earlier MoE result on that path may be unreliable.

Reviewed evidenceDecision rationale; primary evidence not yet reviewed.

DECISION PROPOSED · 17 Sep, 08:20

Do not adopt Mimir 1B from parameter count alone.

Decision rationale; primary evidence not yet reviewed.

Recorded rationalellama.cpp reports roughly four times the decode work of an equal-width dense model and about 3 GB of F16 KV cache at 4K context.

Reviewed evidenceDecision rationale; primary evidence not yet reviewed.

DECISION PROPOSED · 17 Sep, 08:20

Treat Groq 3 LPX power-efficiency claims as a future infrastructure signal, not available GCC capacity.

Decision rationale; primary evidence not yet reviewed.

Recorded rationaleThe vendor framing strengthens the case that power per useful token is the bottleneck, but it provides no dated GCC commissioning or customer-access evidence.

Reviewed evidenceDecision rationale; primary evidence not yet reviewed.

Decision queue

Every item has a next move and a condition that can overturn it.

DO NOWDECISION PROPOSED

Upgrade llama.cpp before the next Apple Silicon MoE evaluation.

The release fixes a Metal path that can turn large activations into NaNs. Any earlier MoE result on that path may be unreliable.

Say this to AI implementation teams running local modelsPause comparisons made on the affected Apple Silicon path. Re-run one representative task on the fixed build before treating earlier quality or latency results as decision-grade.

Next movePin a build at or after b10994, rerun one representative MoE prompt, and compare output plus latency with the previous build.

What would change this judgment?

The affected mul_mm_id path was not used by our model or backend configuration.

WATCHDECISION PROPOSED

Do not adopt Mimir 1B from parameter count alone.

llama.cpp reports roughly four times the decode work of an equal-width dense model and about 3 GB of F16 KV cache at 4K context.

Say this to CIOs and private-AI operatorsA small parameter count is not a low operating cost. Require cost per successful task, memory use and supervision time before choosing this model for private workflows.

Next moveWait for prefix-LM support and an independent cost-per-success result before spending evaluation time.

What would change this judgment?

A reproducible task test shows enough accuracy gain to offset the reported memory and decode costs.

WATCHDECISION PROPOSED

Treat Groq 3 LPX power-efficiency claims as a future infrastructure signal, not available GCC capacity.

The vendor framing strengthens the case that power per useful token is the bottleneck, but it provides no dated GCC commissioning or customer-access evidence.

Say this to GCC sovereign, infrastructure and data-center leadersPlan around power per useful AI outcome and verified access dates. Do not count announced silicon as sovereign capacity until an operating deployment exposes customer access and independent performance data.

Next moveTrack independent watts-per-token and customer-access evidence tied to an operating Vera Rubin deployment.

What would change this judgment?

A dated operational deployment exposes customer access and independently measured performance per watt.

WATCHDECISION PROPOSED

Watch Anthropic ART as a research-automation case; do not treat as a validated application.

The described pipeline links parallel genomic search to candidate triage and human lab testing, but ART function remains unknown and independent validation is absent.

Say this to USEK research and AI workflow advisorsTreat this as a workflow signal: agents can search and rank candidates, while human scientists retain experimental validation. Do not infer a usable biological tool or general autonomous discovery from this case.

Next moveReview the technical report and seek independent replication; measure cost, expert review time, candidate yield and repeatability.

What would change this judgment?

The technical report or independent replication fails to confirm the reported RNA expression or novelty, or comparable searches fail to reproduce the candidate workflow.

WATCHDECISION PROPOSED

Watch Ringg's production pattern; do not treat the customer-story performance figures as independently validated.

OpenAI describes task-based model routing, specialist agents, offline evaluation, staged rollout, live endpoint monitoring and human escalation in a deployed multi-channel service workflow.

Say this to MJ's agent workflows, USEK applied research, and GCC service deploymentsFor an agent deployment, pair task routing and specialist steps with offline evaluation, gradual release, endpoint health checks and clear human handoff. Treat the reported resolution, CSAT and savings figures as vendor/customer claims until independently reproduced.

Next moveAsk for independently measured task mix, resolution denominator, escalation rate, language-specific quality, cost per completed task and post-deployment monitoring evidence.

What would change this judgment?

Independent customer or auditor data shows that completion rates, quality, or cost improvements do not generalize beyond selected workloads or fail to include human handling costs.

WATCHDECISION PROPOSED

Track AnewDDE as a research-automation signal; do not recommend adoption from the preprint claim alone.

A bioRxiv preprint describes an agentic closed-loop drug-discovery workflow connecting structure, affinity, design and experiment selection. It reports 10.7% success for single-digit-nanomolar binders in one nanobody campaign; this remains author-reported evidence.

Say this to USEK research automation and MJ agent workflowsPotentially relevant to a bounded literature or lab-workflow review if methods and data substantiate the claim; no deployment decision yet.

Next moveInspect full methods and results, especially campaign denominator, assay protocol, controls, and availability of data/code.

What would change this judgment?

Full methods fail to support the reported binder yield, the result is not reproducible, or performance depends on a selected campaign that does not generalize.

Lead / lag scoreboard

47 matched items. Baseline discoveries are shown but never claimed as wins.

VERIFIED LEAD43h ahead

Introducing Astra for Law

Compared with Welcome to September 20, 2026. Prospective timing is measurable.

VERIFIED LEAD43h ahead

Sep 18, 2026 Announcements Partnering with Accenture on embedded evaluation

Compared with Welcome to September 20, 2026. Prospective timing is measurable.

VERIFIED LEAD43h ahead

Human brain is two separate organs, Stanford Medicine-led research finds

Compared with Welcome to September 20, 2026. Prospective timing is measurable.

VERIFIED LEAD43h ahead

If math is more than proof, we need to better celebrate the rest of it

Compared with Welcome to September 20, 2026. Prospective timing is measurable.

VERIFIED LEAD33h ahead

Introducing GPT-6 Sol and Luna

Compared with Welcome to September 24, 2026. Prospective timing is measurable.

VERIFIED LEAD33h ahead

GPT-6 Sol and Luna

Compared with Welcome to September 24, 2026. Prospective timing is measurable.

Signal stream

0 repository-metadata pings suppressed; visible items require substantive evidence.

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

LLMersion: A Local-First AI Agent Framework for Low-Cost Home Language Learning toward Educational Equity

arXiv:2609.29672v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Artificial intelligence helps education most where an essential provision has been rationed by cost. For language learners that provision is a teacher's voice, which binds listening, reading, speaking, and writing into one act. Published evidence shows why most learners lack…

capabilitydeploymentconstraintspolicy

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR26 Sep, 09:00

HaloClassifier: integrating coding-signature features and k-mer composition for plasmid-chromosome discrimination in haloarchaeal genomes

Background: Plasmids are key drivers of horizontal gene transfer (HGT), enabling the dissemination of accessory traits that shape microbial adaptation and ecological interactions. In Haloarchaea-dominant members of hypersaline environments-characterizing plasmidomes remains particularly challenging because most available…

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

bioRxiv preprint; not peer reviewed or clinically validated

PRECURSOR26 Sep, 09:00

AnewDDE: An Agentic Drug Discovery Engine for Biomolecular Interaction Modelling and Closed-Loop Design

Accurate modelling of biomolecular interactions is fundamental to drug discovery, yet current artificial intelligence (AI) workflows remain fragmented across structure prediction, affinity estimation, molecular design, and experimental decision-making. We introduce AnewDDE, an agentic Drug Discovery Engine that connects…

capabilityconstraintspolicy

bioRxiv preprint; not peer reviewed or clinically validated

PRECURSOR26 Sep, 09:00

Ollaya – Ollama for open-source, Jev-style decision models

Comments

capabilitydeploymentpolicy

community link/discussion; claims unverified

PRECURSOR26 Sep, 09:00

What did AI researchers think at the end of 2024?

capabilityconstraintspolicy

community post; claims unverified

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

M-plicits: Neural Implicit Surfaces via Nested Multiscale Residuals

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Small yet Assistive: Spatially-Aware Post-Training for Low Vision

capabilitydeploymentpolicy

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

MoVISA: Multi-Token Reasoning for Video Object Segmentation

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

Exploiting answer-invariant redundancies in satellite imagery for efficient VLM inference on edge

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

TOLA: Text-aware One-Step Latent Adaptation for Diffusion-based Text Image Super-Resolution

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

A Study of the Limits of Collaborative DCT-Based Image Denoising via Interpretable Neural Networks

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

PRECURSOR25 Sep, 09:46

SEE Challenge 2026: Event-Guided Brightness Adjustment Across a Broad Illumination Range

capabilitydeploymentconstraints

preprint; not peer reviewed

Hypothesis register

Amber means the prerequisite still lacks reviewed evidence.

agent-reliability6 days overdue

When can agents complete our multi-step work with fewer interventions?

Reliable extended task completion4 reviewed
Lower human correction time1 reviewed
Independent task reproduction0 reviewed

Next discriminating observationIndependent fixed-task results reporting failures, retries and human minutes

open-model-economics6 days overdue

When do deployable open models become viable for our private workflows?

Usable license and released weights0 reviewed
Fits available memory1 reviewed
Acceptable quality at fully loaded cost0 reviewed

Next discriminating observationA reproducible cost-per-success comparison under our hardware constraints

gcc-compute-bottlenecks6 days overdue

Does announced sovereign compute translate into usable capacity?

Delivered equipment0 reviewed
Commissioned power1 reviewed
Accessible operational service0 reviewed

Next discriminating observationDated commissioning and customer-access evidence, not another capacity pledge

research-automation6 days overdue

Which scientific workflows now produce independently validated results?

Reliable execution0 reviewed
Affordable validated result0 reviewed
Experimental access2 reviewed
Independent scientific validation0 reviewed
Repeat adoption0 reviewed

Next discriminating observationIndependent replication including total cost and expert verification time

eval-credibility6 days overdue

Which frontier capability claims survive independent evaluation and provenance scrutiny?

Evaluator independence disclosed0 reviewed
Task and harness equivalence established0 reviewed
Independent reproduction0 reviewed
Contamination and privileged-access risks addressed0 reviewed

Next discriminating observationA primary evaluation artifact and an independent reproduction using the same task definition

This page is a decision surface, not a feed reader. “Decision proposed” records an advisory recommendation; it does not prove execution. Repeated coverage does not count as independent evidence. Unknown measurements remain unknown. Email inventory is incomplete; this page does not represent a complete account inventory.